Upgrading South Africa’s climate plans for a Just Transition

A new analysis of South Africa’s climate plans highlights progress toward a Just Transition to net zero emissions and identifies opportunities to support poorer, coal-reliant regions that are least prepared for the shift.

The study, conducted by SouthSouthNorth in collaboration with the Net Zero Tracker, examined climate commitments from 50 key entities—32 government bodies across national, provincial, and city levels, along with 18 major corporations. The findings reveal a patchwork of approaches, with disparities in ambition and implementation across different regions and industries.

Disparities in regional climate plans

South Africa’s ambitious Climate Change Act aims to enable an effective response to climate change and a Just Transition to a low-carbon economy. However, the analysis highlights gaps in implementation:

1. Coal-dependent provinces need targeted support. Low-income provinces like Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and the Free State, which rely heavily on coal, require investment and tailored policies to ensure an equitable transition.
2. Wealthier cities have more advanced Just Transition plans. Urban centres such as Cape Town, Johannesburg, Durban, and Pretoria benefit from diverse economies and lower dependence on high-carbon industries, allowing for more comprehensive climate strategies.
3. Provinces set the ceiling of ambition for cities. Provincial policies significantly shape city-level climate plans, as seen in the Western Cape influencing Cape Town’s strategy. This top-down trend presents an opportunity for stronger provincial leadership and better coordination across governance levels.

Despite positive developments, the disparities between affluent urban areas and poorer, coal-dependent regions create challenges. Ensuring a Just Transition means addressing these imbalances, offering targeted support to communities most vulnerable to the economic shifts of decarbonisation. The report underscores the need for policies that include worker retraining programs, economic diversification plans, and social safety nets for communities reliant on high-carbon industries.

The analysis also finds that while national and provincial governments have made strides in climate action, cities are often more ambitious. This presents an opportunity to create more effective, aligned policies where city-level leadership informs and strengthens national and provincial strategies rather than being limited by them.

Corporate climate commitments

The study also evaluated climate strategies among South Africa’s largest domestic and multinational corporations, including energy-intensive industries and fossil fuel companies:

1. Top revenue-generating domestic companies generally have strong climate commitments, especially in financial services, technology, and telecommunications, where emissions are lower.
2. Fossil fuel company, Sasol has a relatively ambitious climate mitigation target and a detailed Just Transition framework, including retraining and community investment. However, its net zero goal only partially covers supply chain emissions and lacks conditions on offset credit use, limiting its impact.
3. Multinational corporations display mixed commitments. Apple, Amazon, and Google, for example, do not sufficiently address socio-economic equity in their climate strategies, despite strong global targets.

The corporate sector plays a critical role in achieving South Africa's climate ambitions. However, the analysis reveals that while some companies demonstrate leadership in net zero strategies, others fall behind, particularly when it comes to embedding Just Transition principles into their climate commitments.

Most multinationals operating in South Africa either fail to prioritise Just Transition considerations in their climate strategies or fail to mention them altogether. While some may have robust climate mitigation commitments globally, these often lack localisation, failing to address the unique social and economic challenges of South Africa, such as the need to support local workers and communities. This gap reflects a broader trend where multinationals often overlook the critical role they play in fostering equitable transitions within host countries. Large multinational corporations operating in South Africa need to enhance their focus on social and economic equity, ensuring that their climate action aligns with the broader needs of the communities they operate in.

The report suggests that companies in high-emission industries must go beyond mitigation targets and adopt transformational business model changes. This includes phasing out fossil fuel investments, scaling up renewable energy initiatives, and committing to detailed transition plans that include workers and affected communities in the decision-making process.

Key recommendations

The report offers actionable recommendations for strengthening Just Transition principles:

1. Sector-specific strategies to support industries with lower engagement in equitable climate policies, including sector-wide guidelines and incentives.
2. Stronger focus on multinationals’ Just Transition commitments, requiring enhanced disclosures and active stakeholder engagement to ensure meaningful contributions.
3. More robust regulatory frameworks to align corporate action with national just ransition goals, ensuring that climate policies translate into real social and economic benefits.
4. Investment in skills development and workforce transition programs to prepare workers in coal-reliant regions for new opportunities in the green economy.

South Africa as a Just Transition case study

South Africa is a key example of balancing economic development with climate action. With its reliance on coal and high levels of poverty and inequality, it presents both challenges and opportunities in implementing a Just Transition. The country received the world’s first Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), securing $8.5 billion in 2021 from wealthier nations to accelerate its clean energy shift while promoting social and economic equity.

This analysis underscores the need for equitable resource distribution and targeted support to ensure no region is excluded from the benefits of decarbonisation. Aligning strategies across governance levels will be critical to preventing further socio-economic disparities in the transition to a low-carbon future.

The success of South Africa’s just transition will depend on collaboration between governments, businesses, and communities. Achieving net zero emissions in a way that prioritises fairness requires long-term policy alignment, investment in affected regions, and corporate responsibility. Without these measures, there is a risk that the transition to a green economy could deepen existing inequalities rather than alleviate them.

For South Africa to meet its ambitious climate targets, it must ensure that every province, city, and industry is equipped to participate in the transition. The findings of this report reinforce the urgency of integrating social justice into climate policy, ensuring that decarbonisation delivers shared economic opportunities and a sustainable future for all South Africans.

Samson Mbewe, Project Lead, SouthSouthNorth and Camilla Hyslop, Data Lead, Net Zero Tracker (University of Oxford).

Discover more from Camilla Hyslop.