14th September 2022
A response by Kevin Trenberth.
Dubbed the World Climate Declaration and allegedly signed by “over 1,100 scientists and professionals,” the petition appears to show a faction of the science community that—concerned the debate surrounding climate change has strayed from empirical evidence and become too political—is declaring that “there is,” in fact,“ no climate emergency.”
Except there is!
The goals of climate scientists are exactly those with regard to the science understanding and projections, but when it comes to what to do about the obvious problems, it is not climate scientists who get to say, rather that involves everyone and politics.
Oh yes, natural variability plays a substantial role but that is readily assessed and since the 1970s, climate change effects from human actions are well outside the realm of natural variability.
Models are not perfect but tools to be used intelligently. On the contrary, various assessments of IPCC projections have shown that models have done remarkably well.
Yes, climate models are not perfect, but they are comprehensively evaluated, and those results allow the output to be used as valuable information. Less complicated models, like this statement, and back-of-the envelope calculations indeed have no credibility at all!
Indeed plants take up CO2 during photosynthesis to create leaves and woody material. But CO2 is fatal to animals and is very much a pollutant. It has increased in the atmosphere by nearly 50% from burning fossil fuels and is having disastrous effects.
Yes increased CO2 can increase growth but not necessarily quality of some plants, and these effects are offset by the increased intensity of heat waves, droughts and floods.
Natural variability plays a big role in determining where and when events occur and climate change probably has not changed that very much, but the intensity of the events has definitely changed. Hurricanes are stronger, bigger and last longer. Droughts are more intense and rainfall rates have increased so that floods are more likely. Instead of $1B in damage it is $100B. These are all well understood and expected from the observed changes in the environment.
Exactly, that is why we have the IPCC and their assessments. Their conclusions involving thousands of climate scientists are quite the opposite.
A study in Environmental Research Letters, analysed 88,125 peer-reviewed studies on climate change and found that a jaw-dropping 99.9 percent of them concluded that rapid climate change is happening beyond what would be considered resulting from natural causes, and humans are largely responsible.
This advice has no sound basis.
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